the simulated market appears reasonably efficient and accurate in its predictions,

the simulated market appears reasonably efficient and accurate in its predictions, which
makes it a suitable setting for this study. For instance, Pennock, Lawrence, Giles and Nielsen (2001a;
2001b), who comprehensively analyzed HSX's efficiency and forecast accuracy immediately before a
movie’s release, find that arbitrage closure on HSX is quantitatively weaker, but qualitatively similar,
relative to a real-money market. They also show that HSX forecasts perform competitively in direct
comparisons with expert judges. Elberse and Eliashberg (2003), Spann and Skiera (2003), and, for a
larger pre-release period, Elberse and Anand (2005) provide further evidence that HSX traders
collectively produce relatively good forecasts of actual box office returns (also see Hanson 1999,
Gruca 2000, and Wolfers and Zitzewitz 2004).